🔗 Share this article

Only two days prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.