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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still