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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.