🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.