Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
