Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
