Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".